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The value of shares and ETFs bought through a share dealing account can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. The USD/MXN forecast for 2030 from AI Pickup’s machine learning algorithm showed the pair averaging 18.46 by the end of the decade, up from 20.19 in 2023 and a peak of 24.17 in 2026. The latest USD/MXN forecast for 2023 projects the pair ending 2022 year at 20.50, then stabilising at an average of 20.00 in 2023 and 2024. A thumbnail of a daily chart is provided, with a link to open and customize a full-sized chart. Barchart is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for individuals with disabilities.
USD/MXN Forecast, United States Dollar / Mexican Peso currency rate prediction: Buy or sell USD/MXN pair?
The dollar strengthened to 20.41 in late September, reversing most of the year’s losses. Concerns about the impact of high inflation and increasing interest rates on the global economy weighed on the peso. In forex trading, currencies are traded in pairs with a base currency and a quote currency. The USD/MXN pair refers to how many Mexican pesos – the quote currency – are needed to buy one US dollar – the base currency. The Barchart Technical Opinion widget shows you today’s overally Barchart Opinion with general information on how to interpret the short and longer term signals. Unique to Barchart.com, Opinions analyzes a stock or commodity using 13 popular analytics in short-, medium- and long-term periods.
The USD/MXN pair retreated again after Banixco raised its key inflation rate to 9.25%, falling below 20 to trade at 19.53 on 30 October, its lowest level since February 2020. Investors tend to use the dollar as a safe haven asset to protect wealth during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. That dynamic has driven the dollar to 20-year highs against a basket of currencies – as measured by the US Dollar Index – this year, and sent it to record highs against some emerging markets currencies. The MXN is now the third most-traded currency in the Americas behind the US and Canadian dollars . The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and as such is influenced by the health of the global economy as well as the US economy’s performance.
Why did Mexican peso drop?
The central bank began converting short-term debt, denominated in pesos, into dollar-denominated bonds. The conversion resulted in a decrease in foreign reserves and an increase in debt. A self-fulfilling crisis resulted when investors feared a default on debt by the government.
The FOMC projects inflation to fall to 2.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, declining from the 5.4% forecasted for 2022. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund expects inflation to fall from 8.1% in 2022 to 3.5% and 2.2% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The index, used to measure U.S. dollar strength or weakness compared to a basket of other mainstream currencies, reflects a 12.32% gain on the year to date.
It has broken a strong support of 19 and is expected to move down further. Get started with Monex USA Online for near-instant access to global payment transactions in 130+ currencies. Asana stock exploded 24% late Wednesday after founder and CEO Dustin Moskovitz said he will purchase as much as 30 million shares of the embattled project management platform during the company’s fourth quarter earnings call.
This following examination into the factors that influence USD/MXN includes a Mexican peso to U.S. dollar forecast for a variety of time horizons. It is likely the Mexican peso will experience further gains into 2023, especially if its projected economic growth and the widely anticipated U.S. recession become https://forexbitcoin.info/ a reality. Unlike many U.S. dollar-based pairs, the Mexican peso has enjoyed a robust performance against the U.S. dollar this year. As of Nov. 20, the Mexican peso has roared in value by 6.74% against the greenback over the year to date—one U.S. dollar can buy M$19.44 compared to M$21.00 a year ago.
Consumer Price Index number thwarted expectations at 7.7%—down from the projected 8.2%. “The peso has encountered renewed turbulence as global growth concerns underpin the safe harbour dollar. Once risk aversion fades, the peso would be better positioned to perform. Fundamentally, domestic inflation will help dictate prospects for further peso-positive rate increases by Banxico. Still, the peso’s alluring yield dissipates with every rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed has forecast its borrowing rates would remain higher for longer, strengthening the dollar,” according to the October USD/MXN forecast from currency exchange firm Convera. Spanish bank Santander has revised down its USD/MXN forecast, expecting the peso to remain relatively strong. In that case, a compression of the spread between Banxico and the Fed policy rates could lead to MXN depreciation, which could be offset by flows to fixed-income instruments in Mexico and the LatAm region. Keep in mind that in exotic currencies, the swings can be quite wild, and it tends to be more of a longer-term trade by default. I suspect that might be the case here, but if we can break above the 18.66 MXN level, then it’s very likely that the 18.00 level will hold as it has multiple times in the past. With that being the case, I think it is probably only a matter of time before things turn around, especially as we are starting to see the US dollar flex its muscles against other major currencies.
The peso’s strength reflects a relatively optimistic outlook for the Mexican economy, with 2022 growth surpassing expectations. Having grown 4.8% in 2021, the World Bank expects it to grow by 2.1% in both 2022 and 2023. Forecasts are adjusted once a day taking into account the price change of the previous day. Data are provided ‘as is’ for informational purposes only and are not intended for trading purposes.
Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD / MXN) Forecast 2024 Monthly
CFDs are leveraged products, which means that you only need to deposit a percentage of the full value of the CFD trade in order to open a position. But with traditional trading, you buy the assets for the full amount. In the UK, there is no stamp duty on CFD trading, but there is when you buy stocks, for example. However, you should make trading decisions after performing your own research and remember that high volatility increases risks of losses.
- Forex pairs, cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money.
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- “The peso has encountered renewed turbulence as global growth concerns underpin the safe harbour dollar.
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The pandaforecast.com portal is not responsible for the loss of your money in the stock market as a result of using the information contained on the site. The Mexican peso was changing hands around $18, the strongest since April 2018, as an aggressive tightening from the central bank continued. The Bank of Mexico hiked its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to record 11% in February, adding to the 750 bps increases since its tightening path began in June 2021.
We are proud of how it played out,” explainsJohn Doyle, VP of Trading & Dealing for Monex. US President Joe Biden is set to unveil the new budget plan on Thursday, March 9. Reports have suggested that crypto market participants can expect changes to crypto taxation. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. An upbeat US ISM Non-Manufacturing report could trigger flows to the US Dollar, which means the USD/MXN could rise from YTD lows. In addition, speculations that Banxico is near pausing its tightening cycle would reduce the interest rate differentials between the US and Mexico.
The direction of the USD/MXN pair will likely depend on interest rates in Mexico and the US as well as the health of both countries’ economies and the prospects for a global recession, among other factors. Mexico exports oil, vehicles and metals, such as copper and gold. As a result, commodity prices can have an influence on the value of the peso.
The USD/MXN pair started 2022 at 20.51 and climbed to 21.38 in early March as the dollar rallied in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the peso had recovered by the end of the month and strengthened to 19.79 by mid-April. The Mexican peso has held up against the surging the research driven investor US dollar in 2022, reversing dollar gains each time the greenback has pulled ahead. This widget shows the latest week’s Commitment of Traders open interest. The COT data, as reported by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission ,is from Tuesday, and isreleased Friday by the CFTC.
We are continuously working to improve our web experience, and encourage users to Contact Us for feedback and accommodation requests. The Swiss Franc has rejected new lows overnight with more sideways action. In other words, this will attract a lot of attention and we must ask whether the US dollar is starting to bottom against the Mexican peso. Minutes from Banxico’s latest meeting showed that policymakers were in consensus for a 75bps interest rate increase. The Mexican unemployment rate decreased to 3.3 percent in June of 2022 from 4.0 percent in the corresponding period a year ago, more than market expectations of 3.4 percent. The Mexican economy expanded 0.9 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2022, slightly below preliminary estimates of a 1.0 percent gain and easing from a 1.0 percent growth in the previous period.
Will the dollar go up or down?
The United States Dollar is expected to trade at 106.06 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 110.80 in 12 months time.
84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction. Live educational sessions using site features to explore today’s markets.